Lotus is the “biggest surprise” of the 2012 season so far, Red Bull’s team owner Dietrich Mateschitz has admitted.

In an interview with Austria’s Salzburger Nachrichten newspaper, the billionaire mogul was mildly critical of the “lottery” that is this year’s championship, with Pirelli’s unpredictable tyres setting the scene.

“That is going to continue,” Mateschitz said.

“Then it will gradually turn into a duel between McLaren and Red Bull Racing,” he predicted.

“Mercedes are still not able to keep doing in the race what they are doing in qualifying. So we are not convinced of their F-duct (double DRS) system and we won’t try to copy it.

“Ferrari needs to try the hardest to catch up. And Lotus are the big surprise for me,” he insisted.

Ferrari might be gearing up to incorporate a ‘double-DRS’ setup aboard its improving F2012 car.

If true, the famous Italian team would be the first team to successfully emulate the controversial Mercedes system, which has been declared fully legal by the governing FIA.

Germany’s Auto Motor und Sport said a new rear wing was among the very last upgrades to be trialled by Fernando Alonso as the Mugello test concluded late on Thursday.

“The wing has only minor changes. You have to look closely,” read the report.

The magazine reported rumours that the wing might eventually accommodate the so-called ‘double-DRS’ or 2012-style F-duct, which would work in conjunction with a new and so far unseen front wing.

“That (wing) will debut along with a new diffuser and nose in Barcelona,” added Auto Motor und Sport.

There were happy faces in the Ferrari garage on Thursday, as – despite a minor off by Alonso – the upgrades appeared to work well.

“Barcelona will be a key moment in the season, but not a decisive one,” the Spanish driver insisted.

“It’s not a case that we will suddenly find ourselves back on pole position, because there is no magic button.”

Echoing the earlier words of Mark Webber, Alonso said the “fastest car” at Mugello this week was the Lotus.

Red Bull’s Dr Helmut Marko agrees: “It looks like Lotus are the quickest.”

Veteran Swiss correspondent Roger Benoit wrote in Blick newspaper: “Lotus, with Kimi Raikkonen in super shape, is the championship dark horse.”

Jenson Button doubts other teams will be pushing too hard to rush a Mercedes-style ‘double-DRS’ to their 2012 package.

The F-duct-style concept is, so far, the highest profile innovation of the season.

So with the FIA declaring it fully legal, and Nico Rosberg breaking through with his maiden pole and win in Shanghai last weekend, it seems a no-brainer that the other teams will now be following suit.

But McLaren’s Button doesn’t think so.

“I really don’t think it’s giving them that much — I think they’re just quick,” he is quoted by the BBC.

“From all our simulations, we don’t think it’s a massive margin at all. It’s a great invention on their part, but our DRS system is very good so I don’t think it’s giving them much over us.

“Obviously nothing in the race and in qualifying it’s minimal,” said Button.

His teammate Lewis Hamilton thinks the fastest cars so far are the Mercedes, the McLaren and the Red Bull.

“The Mercedes I think is now the quickest — particularly over one lap,” said the 2008 world champion.

“Not sure they are quickest in race pace. I think the Red Bull is probably the quickest in race pace. We have shown we have good qualifying pace and race pace.

“We are there or thereabouts and we have as good an opportunity as anyone.”

McLaren is not yet ready to roll out a Mercedes-style ‘F-duct’ to complement its highly competitive 2012 car.

Despite Mercedes struggling with tyres in the actual races so far, the W03 is a standout qualifying performer, thanks in part to the so-nicknamed front and rear ‘super-DRS’ system.

Red Bull, Lotus and perhaps even Ferrari are threatening to protest, but until now McLaren – with arguably the dominant package of the 2012 season so far – has stayed out of the argument.

“We don’t have a strong view one way or the other,” technical director Paddy Lowe confirmed during the regular Vodafone media teleconference on Tuesday.

The F-duct will remain a hot topic in China this weekend, with Lotus’ technical boss James Allison believed to be armed with two new arguments against its legality.

It was thought McLaren was quite advanced with its own version of the system.

But Lowe revealed: “Until we’ve got clarity it’s difficult for us to commit a huge about of effort in that direction. So that’s where we are at the moment.”

He steered away from suggestions Mercedes, including boss Ross Brawn, have flouted the “spirit” of the recent F-duct ban.

“There’s no such thing as the spirit of the rules,” insisted Lowe, admitting that if there was a ‘spirit’ of the DRS rule, the Mercedes system is “definitely” in breach.

“The debate around whether they can keep that system on the car is not about whether it is in that spirit or not, it’s about whether the text of the regulations means they can’t,” he explained.

There are still some “gentlemen” in F1, team boss and owner Peter Sauber insists.

Amid the recent F-duct debate, it was suggested that Mercedes’ Ross Brawn had broken a teams’ ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ that the technology should not be pursued.

“I think you need gentlemen in formula one for this” Sport Bild reporter Ralf Bach jibed sarcastically during a news conference recently.

But Sauber, arguably one of the few gentlemen in the paddock, told Sonntagsblick that he still has some peers.

Asked if he was privately congratulated after Sergio Perez’s second place in Malaysia recently, the Swiss said: “Martin Whitmarsh, of McLaren, offered me a very nice congratulation.

“Franz Tost (Toro Rosso) wrote me a lovely text. And then Domenicali and the people at Ferrari; we have a very friendly relationship,” added Sauber.

As for whether there are many other gentlemen in F1, he insisted: “In this business, you don’t really ask this question.

“I didn’t know Colin Chapman. Ken Tyrrell was someone who appealed to me greatly, but he didn’t take us (Sauber) seriously. It was the same with Frank Williams.”

Indeed, in the paddock, scepticism and cynicism are more widespread, which explains why Sauber’s 2012 car – although fast throughout winter testing – was not regarded as a serious threat until mere days ago.

“We knew our car was good after the tests in Jerez and Barcelona. But the others just thought that we were running light, which is common when a team from the midfield shows something,” said Sauber.

Also amusing, according to Peter Sauber, is the story of Sergio Perez.

“A year ago it was said he just paid for his cockpit. So it makes me chuckle now when I see them say he is going to Ferrari,” he smiled.

Ross Brawn has confirmed reports that Mercedes’ 2012 ‘F-duct’ will not be easily copied by rival teams.

We reported on Thursday that while Red Bull and now Ferrari worked quickly to copy Sauber’s clever exhaust solution, they are crying foul over the Mercedes F-duct.

Is it because they really believe it breaks the rules, or is the system simply difficult to copy?

Red Bull designer Adrian Newey was quoted by Brazilian O Estado de S.Paulo newspaper in Malaysia: “In regard to the aerodynamic (F) duct of the Mercedes, and sending the airflow from the back to the front, it is necessary to review the entire project.”

Mercedes team boss Brawn confirmed: “The opposition is so fierce (because) there’s a recognition it’s quite difficult to do.”

He rejected the rivals’ arguments about cost, however, insisting Mercedes’ system consists mainly of carbon tubing costing no more than thousands of pounds.

“It’s a very simple, cheap system, but not so easy to implement if you haven’t integrated it into your car,” said the Briton.

“This is at the heart of the frustration of some of our opponents. If someone could put it on their car easily, I promise you we wouldn’t be having these discussions.”

It emerged this week, however, that despite the FIA having consistently sided with Mercedes on the F-duct issue, Lotus’ technical boss James Allison has come up with two new arguments that will be put to Charlie Whiting next week in China.

“We would obviously be extremely disappointed if someone was to take a different view,” said Brawn.

“The FIA have been fairly consistent over their position so we have faith that they’ll maintain that consistency.”

In the case of Sauber’s clever exhaust solution, Red Bull simply rolled out a copy in the days before the 2012 season.

Writing in O Estado de S.Paulo, Brazilian correspondent Livio Oricchio said the Sauber philosophy makes ingenious use of something called the ‘Coanda effect’.

In the wake of the FIA’s strict clampdown on blown exhaust technology for 2012, the C31 uses the Coanda effect – named after Romanian aerodynamics pioneer Henri Coanda – to legally entice the flow of exhaust to the diffuser.

Ferrari is understood to be the next team set to follow suit.

Red Bull, Ferrari and Lotus, however, have a vastly different attitude when it comes to Mercedes’ clever F-duct, which uses the existing DRS rules to redirect air from the rear of the W03 car to the front.

The concept not only significantly boosts straight line speed but also improves handling.

The FIA’s Charlie Whiting has declared that Sauber and Mercedes are doing nothing wrong.

But the three aforementioned teams continue to rail against the F-duct, even leaving open the threat of protest ahead of the Chinese grand prix.

Red Bull’s Dr Helmut Marko explains: “Lotus, who are very responsible, have discovered two ways in which the F-duct is not in accordance with the regulations.”

So is the difference in attitude when it comes to the Sauber and Mercedes innovations actually about the ease in which they can be copied?

Oricchio quotes Red Bull’s Adrian Newey as having said in Malaysia: “In regard to the aerodynamic (F) duct of the Mercedes, and sending the airflow from the back to the front, it is necessary to review the entire project.”

The FIA appears to have waded back into the ‘F-duct’ debate, indicating that the Mercedes-style solution is fully legal.

We reported on Monday that the saga looked set to continue into China next weekend, with some teams – notably Red Bull and Lotus – questioning the legality of the aerodynamic innovation.

It had emerged that Lotus technical director James Allison has come up with another argument against the technology that will be posed to the FIA’s Charlie Whiting ahead of scrutineering in Shanghai next week.

Christian Horner insists Red Bull and Lotus’ concerns are shared by others.

“Believe me it’s not just Red Bull, I think there’s half the paddock that’s been looking at this,” he told British television Sky Sport’s The F1 Show.

The Red Bull team boss revealed that Whiting left Malaysia wanting “to have a think about it”.

So, the latest development is the re-release via the FIA website of an “edited version” of the technical briefing that Whiting gave to reporters in Australia last month.

It is believed the complaining teams’ main objection to the Mercedes system is that it arguably uses ‘driver movement’ – the pressing of the DRS button – to be activated.

Under the heading “Pressing the DRS button and the issue of ‘driver movement’”, the media briefing quotes Whiting as stating simply: “This is specifically allowed (in the rules).”

Mercedes’ Ross Brawn is quoted by the BBC: “We call it the DRS, because that’s all it is. The purpose of the DRS is to improve overtaking and that’s what we’re trying to do.”

Whiting’s stance in China, however, may not be the end of it.

“Then the teams are faced with alternatives,” Horner explained. “Either accept it and get on it and maybe look at your own solution if that fits your car.

“You’ve got the opportunity to protest if we were to feel – or any other team were to feel – that we didn’t agree with Charlie’s interpretation,” he added.

The 2012 ‘F-duct’ controversy looks set to keep running for now.

“It’s not over yet,” confirmed Red Bull advisor Dr Helmut Marko to Germany’s Auto Bild.

In Australia and Malaysia, the threat of results protests hung over the opening races of 2012, due to some teams – chiefly Red Bull and Lotus – questioning the legality of the aerodynamic innovation on Mercedes’ 2012 car.

Until now, the FIA has declared that the system – working in unison with the driver-operated DRS – is fully legal.

But it has emerged that Lotus technical director James Allison has come up with another argument against the technology that will be posed to the FIA’s Charlie Whiting ahead of scrutineering for next weekend’s Chinese grand prix.

It is believed that while Ferrari is on Red Bull and Lotus’ side at present, Mercedes-powered McLaren is currently staying out of the debate altogether.

Sauber has revealed it cannot afford to simply jump in and copy Mercedes’ innovative F-duct solution.

The small Swiss team had almost winning race pace in Malaysia last weekend even without the extra straight-line speed that would be provided by a system along the lines of Mercedes’ DRS-complimenting concept.

Despite their complaints about the legality of the system, there is little doubt the big-budget teams will be working frantically to emulate the Mercedes’ concept, which to date has the blessing of the FIA.

According to Germany’s Auto Motor und Sport, however, it will be a different story for the smaller teams.

“If we started now with a blank sheet of paper, we would be ready in two months,” said Sauber’s chief designer Matt Morris.

“But it would really add up. We have to ask ourselves whether it’s worth it for us, or whether we would be better off chasing the laptime with more conventional steps.

“On the other hand the big teams can handle a development like that in parallel to their normal programmes,” he added.

Also on the technical front, Auto Motor und Sport reveals that rival teams are closer to getting to the bottom of Red Bull’s ever-flexible front wings.

After the last day of testing in Barcelona, detailed photographs emerged of Sebastian Vettel’s stricken RB8 that appeared to show a sort of torsion bar inside the damaged front wing.

The report said the torsion bar may be pre-loaded in order to pass the FIA’s static load tests, but then bend at speed.

An FIA insider suggested the system, although permitted in private testing, “would not be allowed” at the actual grands prix.

Norbert Haug has the ‘F-duct’ debate around by admitting he questions the exhaust solution featured on this year’s McLaren car.

Some teams – notably Red Bull, Lotus and Ferrari – have complained loudly about the W03′s aerodynamic configuration, arguing the F-duct ban completely ruled out similar systems that are triggered by a driver’s movement.

Mercedes argues that its new F-duct is entirely passive and is triggered not by the driver but by the activation of the ‘DRS’ rear wing system.

So far, the FIA agrees, but it has led to suggestions Mercedes is only performing in qualifying because of its questionable F-duct, before struggling in the race when DRS use is much more limited.

“We have to live with that,” Mercedes’ motor racing chief Haug is quoted by Sport Bild, “until we are faster in the race, but it’s not true that we do not have a good car.

“We are a serious team that has to pretend nothing; we have prepared well in winter testing.”

Team boss Ross Brawn said recently he suspects all the fuss about Mercedes’ F-duct is a diversion when it comes to the exhaust solutions taken by some of his rivals in the wake of the blown diffuser clampdown.

Haug agrees that championship leader McLaren’s solution, for example, is “probably not what they (the FIA) had in mind when the blown diffuser was banned”.

But he also said Mercedes is not threatening to protest the “clever” British team.

“It is quite legitimate that we ask the FIA for a clarification, otherwise we could be missing a trick.

“It’s part of the game,” he explains.

Michael Schumacher has played down expectations he or Nico Rosberg could put their 2012 Mercedes on pole in Malaysia.
“I think we will be somewhere near the top,” Rosberg is quoted by Germany’s Auto Motor und Sport. “The race is more of a worry for us.”

Last weekend in Australia, the W03 was strong in qualifying but faded in the race as it ate through the Pirelli tyres.

Mercedes insists it is working on the race pace problem, but the Brackley based team could shine even brighter in Sepang qualifying, with the innovative W-duct working particularly well on the long straights.

So could Schumacher secure his 69th pole on Saturday?

“That would be too optimistic,” said the 43-year-old German. “I think the battle for fifth place is the maximum.”

A really good qualifying for Mercedes, however, would be a problem for a team like Red Bull.

“With the (W-duct) system, the Mercedes will be very difficult to overtake,” Dr Helmut Marko told Bild newspaper.

It is believed the reigning champions, despite insisting the system is illegal, are hard at work on their own F-duct.

But Marko admitted: “It is very difficult to recreate.”

Mercedes team boss Ross Brawn believes all the fuss about the W-duct is a ploy by teams like Red Bull.

“They are bombarding the FIA with questions about our technology in the hope of finding out the secret,” he said.

Make no mistake, the era of Red Bull’s utter dominance is over.
After McLaren ruled over last weekend’s Malaysian grand prix, Friday in Malaysia indicated the British team will stay on top in the Sepang heat.

Over a single lap, world champion Sebastian Vettel admitted to Germany’s Auto Motor und Sport: “McLaren is too strong for us.”

On long runs, Adrian Newey’s RB8 is closer.

“This is the positive aspect of the day,” said Dr Helmut Marko on Friday. “We have not managed to balance the car for one lap only.

“This applies to both tyre compounds — both drivers are having trouble setting up the car.

“Any setup change raises more questions, causing reactions that we do not expect. We are still answering the question of ‘what causes what?’”

Marko admitted plainly: “We have lost our supremacy in qualifying. McLaren is better for one lap, and even Mercedes thanks to its F-duct is very strong.

“The Mercedes is quick as a flash on the straight and also Alonso is eerily consistent and in the race could be a problem,” said the Austrian.

Red Bull also remains unhappy with Mercedes’ F-duct, but there should be no post-race protest in Malaysia — the FIA had instructed unhappy teams to file their protests before Friday practice, in the interests of the ‘show’.

Additionally, in Charlie Whiting’s words at Sepang: “There is nothing to complain about.”

 Red Bull has stepped up the technical row with Mercedes by accusing the German team of breaching a gentlemen’s agreement.
Red Bull and Lotus last weekend threatened to protest the results in Australia, due to Mercedes’ innovative new ‘F-duct’-like solution.

“They are not complying with the agreement of the technical working group,” said Christian Horner.

Adrian Newey also told Auto Bild Motorsport: “The FIA has allowed the system, but Mercedes has gone against the gentlemen’s agreement of the teams.”

He is apparently referring to a meeting last year in which teams informally agreed not to pursue certain technical directions.

 Contrary to recent speculation, McLaren does not yet have a Mercedes-style new F-duct on its dominant 2012 car.
When boss Martin Whitmarsh said in Melbourne that he would not be joining a theoretical protest against the Mercedes innovation, many suggested it was because the MP4-27 is already hiding something similar.

Not yet, although the FIA did take a long look at the silver car in Melbourne.

“If they were looking for an F-duct, we don’t have one,” Whitmarsh smiled to Germany’s Auto Motor und Sport.

In fact, the scrutineers were checking and then re-checking the height of the MP4-27′s front wing.

But the F-duct might be coming.

“All the teams are going to be trying to extract the maximum within the permitted regulations,” confirmed managing director Jonathan Neale in a media teleconference this week.

But he also revealed that McLaren doesn’t yet “understand well enough” how the Mercedes system works.

Melbourne winner Jenson Button and his teammate Lewis Hamilton will therefore race a basically unchanged McLaren this weekend in Malaysia.

But Hamilton’s downbeat mood has been picked up with the news that he was beaten by Button from pole last Sunday due to a minor clutch issue.

“It wasn’t my fault,” said the Briton, “but we now understand and know how to improve in the future.”

As for their differing race performances, Hamilton insists he now understands “the reasons” for Melbourne “and it puts me in a really positive frame of mind” ahead of this weekend’s Malaysian grand prix.